* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP922008 08/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 41 43 45 49 51 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 41 43 45 49 51 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 30 32 33 35 35 35 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 11 11 10 11 9 8 6 7 13 18 24 SHEAR DIR 89 94 112 99 104 109 123 132 155 205 223 208 235 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 130 130 133 134 131 127 125 126 129 131 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 52 54 54 52 46 41 38 39 41 37 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 19 20 27 32 35 27 22 15 5 -7 -18 200 MB DIV 21 13 4 -2 -6 -26 -21 -23 -12 -21 -26 -28 -29 LAND (KM) 1430 1342 1257 1180 1103 954 854 834 887 986 1112 1177 1278 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.3 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 145.7 146.7 147.7 148.8 149.8 152.1 154.4 156.9 159.4 161.7 163.9 166.2 168.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 18. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 16. 18. 20. 24. 26. 26. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY