* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP092008 08/06/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 51 56 59 56 55 52 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 51 56 59 56 55 52 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 35 34 33 31 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 13 13 13 9 11 8 9 5 8 6 2 SHEAR DIR 71 80 81 88 93 98 76 73 64 90 97 149 53 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.7 26.8 26.0 25.2 24.3 23.6 23.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 149 148 142 132 124 116 106 99 95 97 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 76 77 78 74 73 65 65 55 58 51 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 14 13 14 12 13 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 31 35 42 68 59 82 61 83 65 76 48 200 MB DIV 69 73 44 42 41 50 29 38 11 12 10 14 26 LAND (KM) 996 1039 1090 1079 1083 1137 1214 1314 1475 1618 1779 1966 2155 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.2 113.3 114.4 115.4 117.6 119.9 122.1 124.6 127.1 129.5 131.8 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 19. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 6. 8. 5. 5. 4. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 30. 35. 32. 30. 27. 25. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 26. 31. 35. 31. 30. 27. 26. 23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 INVEST 08/06/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 INVEST 08/06/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY