* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ONE CP012008 08/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 44 47 49 51 53 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 44 47 49 51 53 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 41 42 43 44 44 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 12 12 13 12 9 9 11 7 9 13 20 SHEAR DIR 102 105 101 106 109 118 120 132 145 180 213 231 242 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 130 131 136 136 134 129 127 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 54 55 56 51 49 46 40 42 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 13 19 23 22 23 7 0 -3 -13 -25 -39 200 MB DIV 21 12 2 -3 -7 -25 -12 -21 0 -14 -18 -28 -20 LAND (KM) 1378 1294 1214 1128 1051 944 900 953 1053 1162 1280 1349 1458 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.3 147.4 148.5 149.7 150.9 153.3 155.7 158.2 160.7 163.0 165.1 167.2 169.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 25. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 ONE 08/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 ONE 08/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY