* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/07/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 51 60 65 66 64 61 60 56 52 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 51 60 65 66 64 61 60 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 48 52 55 55 54 50 46 42 39 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 12 14 15 8 9 9 9 11 11 6 8 SHEAR DIR 58 68 64 77 102 93 77 50 89 44 71 49 27 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.5 25.7 25.0 24.4 24.0 23.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 148 148 144 138 129 121 113 107 102 100 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 75 73 71 68 61 60 62 60 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 47 49 57 59 70 75 64 72 50 48 37 200 MB DIV 74 51 40 35 36 45 48 24 46 15 51 15 10 LAND (KM) 994 1051 1056 1072 1101 1186 1252 1358 1486 1618 1770 1912 2053 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.3 114.5 115.6 116.6 118.6 120.8 122.9 125.0 127.0 128.9 130.6 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 28. 33. 35. 33. 28. 26. 22. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 16. 25. 30. 31. 29. 26. 25. 21. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY