* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ONE CP012008 08/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 47 50 52 54 54 55 56 56 55 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 47 50 52 54 54 55 56 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 41 43 45 46 47 48 49 49 50 49 48 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 11 13 14 10 7 5 4 8 13 17 22 SHEAR DIR 98 94 84 97 112 116 91 123 173 232 236 250 258 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 131 134 135 132 129 127 129 132 134 136 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 56 55 53 46 44 41 40 41 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 18 19 25 20 10 -2 -7 -15 -31 -33 -44 200 MB DIV 23 21 3 3 -8 -19 -14 -12 -6 -31 -30 -22 32 LAND (KM) 1299 1215 1131 1052 983 887 866 937 1077 1235 1357 1498 1653 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.4 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 147.2 148.4 149.5 150.7 151.9 154.4 156.9 159.6 162.4 165.2 168.0 170.7 173.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 21. 20. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 ONE 08/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 ONE 08/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY