* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/07/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 54 57 61 63 62 59 58 58 51 47 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 54 57 61 63 62 59 58 58 51 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 58 61 64 64 62 58 52 47 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 17 15 12 10 11 15 9 11 9 13 11 SHEAR DIR 51 60 59 78 84 67 67 66 42 22 18 28 28 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 143 140 133 127 121 114 107 100 95 93 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 72 72 70 66 62 67 66 66 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 56 65 72 67 77 51 57 37 42 34 36 200 MB DIV 47 29 36 39 34 37 57 37 23 39 63 16 -20 LAND (KM) 1020 1026 1047 1087 1136 1199 1267 1348 1444 1549 1694 1817 1936 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.5 115.6 116.7 117.7 119.4 121.1 122.7 124.4 126.3 128.4 130.1 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 26. 25. 21. 17. 17. 9. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 17. 14. 13. 13. 6. 2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY