* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/07/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 44 45 46 47 49 50 49 47 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 44 45 46 47 49 50 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 40 40 41 43 43 43 42 40 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 16 16 12 8 5 3 10 11 18 28 29 SHEAR DIR 91 91 103 114 118 113 93 172 243 240 247 252 258 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 133 134 134 130 126 127 130 132 135 136 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 51 54 52 50 46 45 43 39 40 40 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 9 18 28 34 32 32 14 5 -6 -20 -27 -31 -39 200 MB DIV 22 12 8 10 8 8 -5 -5 -18 -23 -27 4 29 LAND (KM) 1235 1147 1064 984 917 856 861 940 1078 1178 1294 1437 1595 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 149.1 150.3 151.6 152.8 155.2 158.0 160.7 163.3 165.9 168.5 170.9 173.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/07/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY