* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/07/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 57 56 56 54 52 51 47 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 57 56 56 54 52 51 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 55 56 59 58 55 50 45 41 38 34 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 12 13 9 12 13 13 5 7 6 4 8 SHEAR DIR 65 59 89 96 95 101 81 100 34 54 35 114 328 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.4 24.0 23.7 23.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 141 137 130 122 115 106 101 98 95 91 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 71 67 65 59 60 58 60 61 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 61 68 63 76 70 69 58 47 40 48 46 200 MB DIV 26 39 32 28 30 38 32 35 27 30 13 23 28 LAND (KM) 1041 1061 1092 1129 1171 1239 1339 1446 1511 1612 1727 1835 1946 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 18.8 18.8 19.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.6 116.6 117.6 118.5 120.5 122.5 124.3 125.9 127.4 128.8 130.3 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 19. 19. 18. 16. 13. 10. 9. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 2. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY