* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 41 44 45 46 47 48 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 41 44 45 46 47 48 49 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 40 42 43 43 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 11 16 17 14 9 4 3 5 10 15 16 21 28 SHEAR DIR 88 99 111 119 123 82 54 226 246 250 243 248 260 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 134 134 132 129 126 128 130 131 134 136 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 52 52 50 49 44 37 37 37 34 40 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 36 32 34 33 17 13 -1 -22 -23 -39 -48 200 MB DIV 7 7 20 16 -14 -2 -9 -17 -29 -31 -24 4 28 LAND (KM) 1108 1032 967 910 870 852 893 993 1117 1213 1348 1514 1729 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 149.3 150.5 151.6 152.9 154.1 156.7 159.1 161.8 164.4 166.9 169.0 171.4 174.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY