* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 66 68 67 65 61 55 51 47 43 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 64 66 68 67 65 61 55 51 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 64 65 65 63 58 53 47 41 36 32 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 15 11 11 11 13 6 10 12 16 7 16 SHEAR DIR 71 81 95 80 71 65 66 49 10 15 32 46 29 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.4 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 139 134 126 121 114 105 101 100 99 97 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 68 68 62 58 58 59 60 64 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 56 64 67 61 66 79 63 74 54 39 26 5 23 200 MB DIV 45 42 39 44 28 41 27 21 21 7 18 24 7 LAND (KM) 1099 1145 1199 1221 1229 1266 1427 1533 1564 1653 1829 1977 2109 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.1 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.5 18.8 18.4 18.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 117.0 118.0 118.8 119.6 121.2 123.4 125.2 126.5 127.9 129.7 131.5 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 8 7 8 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 15. 12. 8. 3. -2. -6. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 10. 6. 0. -4. -8. -12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY