* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/07/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 31 37 44 49 54 59 62 65 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 31 37 44 49 54 59 62 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 14 17 14 17 18 19 17 13 17 19 15 SHEAR DIR 64 74 76 78 82 53 39 49 27 48 43 62 73 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 144 144 142 140 138 136 134 131 128 124 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.1 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 71 67 71 70 67 65 61 52 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 10 10 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 3 13 18 21 33 47 47 55 46 42 28 200 MB DIV 36 21 22 21 38 53 69 94 98 98 35 30 0 LAND (KM) 2134 2062 1992 1931 1871 1777 1702 1615 1514 1404 1296 1163 1046 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.6 10.0 10.6 11.2 12.1 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.8 139.5 140.2 140.8 141.9 142.9 143.8 144.7 145.5 146.3 147.1 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 32. 36. 40. 41. 44. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 24. 29. 34. 39. 42. 45. 43. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/07/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/07/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY