* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 43 42 42 43 42 41 42 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 43 42 42 43 42 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 38 41 43 44 45 43 42 39 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 13 6 4 3 5 9 14 22 27 29 35 SHEAR DIR 100 117 127 160 111 55 178 234 237 257 257 258 265 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 132 130 127 126 127 130 131 134 137 138 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 47 47 41 39 37 33 34 36 39 37 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 30 38 42 39 38 19 -1 -15 -29 -32 -31 200 MB DIV 8 24 20 -7 2 7 -13 -13 -16 -28 -25 8 56 LAND (KM) 1009 932 868 823 800 802 876 1025 1125 1240 1361 1552 1783 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.8 153.0 154.3 155.5 157.8 160.4 163.1 165.8 168.3 170.4 172.8 175.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 7. 7. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY