* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 65 67 66 63 58 54 48 48 45 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 65 67 66 63 58 54 48 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 61 61 58 54 49 44 39 35 32 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 9 14 13 11 10 7 8 8 9 7 9 SHEAR DIR 88 94 78 74 96 76 86 62 56 47 63 63 93 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 136 134 125 118 113 106 100 96 96 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 72 67 67 66 64 64 62 63 61 57 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 66 67 60 60 66 67 62 53 41 40 42 24 38 200 MB DIV 43 49 43 32 44 28 41 38 35 24 38 3 -4 LAND (KM) 1181 1229 1277 1303 1334 1414 1519 1599 1672 1774 1919 2070 2134 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.0 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.2 120.1 120.9 122.8 124.4 125.9 127.5 129.2 131.2 132.9 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -6. -7. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 11. 8. 3. -1. -7. -7. -10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY