* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/08/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 33 37 46 54 61 67 66 65 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 33 37 46 54 61 67 66 65 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 27 28 29 29 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 11 11 12 13 17 15 17 14 24 18 12 SHEAR DIR 78 73 85 88 70 34 35 33 62 55 52 57 73 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 143 142 140 138 135 132 130 127 125 123 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.3 -53.9 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 65 69 69 68 65 62 56 56 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 6 6 6 7 9 13 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -1 2 13 22 22 26 38 58 60 54 31 13 -21 200 MB DIV 29 19 16 15 48 51 80 97 115 67 30 19 -12 LAND (KM) 2015 1944 1875 1819 1763 1679 1584 1483 1383 1277 1154 1023 893 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.1 139.9 140.6 141.3 141.9 143.0 144.1 145.1 146.0 146.9 147.8 148.7 149.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 12. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 34. 43. 43. 42. 42. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 34. 41. 47. 46. 45. 45. 45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/08/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/08/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY