* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 41 44 46 47 46 46 46 45 46 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 41 44 46 47 46 46 46 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 39 42 44 46 47 46 44 42 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 9 6 4 4 5 9 17 21 23 30 36 SHEAR DIR 118 116 119 112 81 61 208 240 242 255 264 269 284 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 131 129 126 126 128 131 134 136 137 141 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 41 42 37 34 34 33 37 35 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 33 36 42 31 25 13 -9 -11 -39 -35 -49 200 MB DIV 21 10 -4 10 10 13 3 -29 -27 -43 -20 15 30 LAND (KM) 942 880 835 800 786 843 957 1077 1160 1305 1487 1673 1858 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 151.7 153.0 154.2 155.5 156.7 159.3 161.9 164.4 167.0 169.5 171.9 174.2 176.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY