* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/08/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 55 54 51 48 47 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 55 54 51 48 47 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 56 56 55 52 48 44 39 36 33 30 SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 12 15 14 13 11 11 7 11 6 8 6 SHEAR DIR 95 93 87 105 85 70 66 53 43 37 74 40 102 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.8 24.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 137 134 131 126 118 110 104 100 99 104 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 66 66 64 69 64 62 60 63 64 64 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 67 63 61 66 71 52 63 42 41 28 30 18 35 200 MB DIV 38 32 27 33 39 19 24 28 38 30 22 31 28 LAND (KM) 1253 1300 1337 1373 1414 1507 1606 1680 1775 1860 1946 2122 2086 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.4 120.3 121.1 121.9 123.5 125.4 127.1 128.7 129.9 131.0 132.8 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -3. -8. -9. -9. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -12. -12. -13. -14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY