* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 42 44 43 42 42 45 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 42 44 43 42 42 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 39 41 44 45 45 44 42 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 8 5 2 2 3 10 15 22 27 29 N/A SHEAR DIR 118 100 111 100 92 88 258 248 253 254 268 281 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 131 129 127 127 129 132 134 135 136 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 41 43 39 36 36 34 36 37 36 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 30 36 36 19 10 -9 -20 -33 -42 -50 N/A 200 MB DIV 16 0 22 11 16 0 -24 -22 -34 -10 0 24 N/A LAND (KM) 903 855 824 814 828 920 1072 1237 1377 1552 1724 1951 N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 13.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.6 153.8 155.0 156.3 157.6 160.2 162.8 165.6 168.4 171.1 173.5 176.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 12 12 12 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 8. 7. 7. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 8. 7. 7. 10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY