* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 70 70 66 63 59 53 51 49 48 49 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 70 70 66 63 59 53 51 49 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 72 71 68 61 55 48 43 39 37 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 13 13 15 15 9 10 7 3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 96 102 107 85 79 80 62 80 41 61 350 229 106 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.2 25.4 24.8 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 136 132 125 116 110 106 104 104 107 110 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 69 65 64 65 68 64 66 62 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 50 55 47 44 31 27 17 17 7 38 58 200 MB DIV 46 37 40 40 18 13 36 31 15 38 43 63 52 LAND (KM) 1344 1390 1440 1490 1544 1621 1647 1718 1845 1976 2080 2204 2149 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 16.1 17.1 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.7 17.4 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.3 121.2 122.2 123.1 124.8 126.1 127.6 129.3 130.8 132.1 133.3 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. -3. -9. -11. -13. -15. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -2. -6. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY