* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 34 42 49 52 51 52 58 58 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 34 42 49 52 51 52 58 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 14 11 15 19 11 13 7 6 4 7 13 SHEAR DIR 101 96 89 80 67 62 50 70 81 122 234 210 227 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 141 141 138 133 127 123 118 114 110 110 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 70 64 62 60 57 57 51 51 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 33 41 56 63 66 71 59 59 46 47 21 24 200 MB DIV 27 37 50 71 91 92 84 47 32 30 13 3 -21 LAND (KM) 1965 1909 1852 1802 1752 1639 1508 1365 1227 1068 922 782 660 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.0 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 139.1 139.7 140.2 140.7 141.1 142.0 142.9 143.8 144.8 145.9 147.0 148.0 148.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 12. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 25. 29. 29. 31. 36. 36. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 14. 22. 29. 32. 31. 32. 38. 38. 36. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY