* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 40 45 48 51 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 40 45 48 51 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 24 26 29 32 35 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 21 21 23 24 15 10 2 3 7 5 9 SHEAR DIR 59 56 62 51 44 37 29 18 17 136 158 148 157 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 144 144 142 141 140 140 140 140 137 135 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -52.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 75 71 65 63 61 60 59 59 63 59 63 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -6 -8 -19 -21 -9 -17 -9 -7 -7 11 21 33 200 MB DIV 117 100 108 87 51 55 36 17 30 27 38 39 57 LAND (KM) 933 962 994 991 981 932 927 936 929 949 1005 1053 1120 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.5 11.9 13.2 14.2 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.8 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.9 111.8 112.8 113.7 114.7 115.8 116.9 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 11. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY