* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/08/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 42 49 67 77 86 91 92 90 90 90 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 42 49 67 77 86 91 92 90 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 57 66 73 78 82 85 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 4 6 5 3 7 10 12 13 11 12 11 SHEAR DIR 165 128 157 151 191 191 38 68 95 81 68 68 91 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 150 150 151 152 154 154 153 151 148 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -52.7 -53.6 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 77 73 77 78 78 78 76 73 79 76 79 73 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 12 11 12 13 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 68 70 73 73 79 58 42 34 36 38 41 33 33 200 MB DIV 102 120 120 99 113 154 89 111 90 100 59 53 43 LAND (KM) 221 281 367 429 448 478 538 558 534 515 515 503 483 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.4 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.0 92.9 94.8 96.7 98.5 100.3 101.9 103.4 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 37. 47. 57. 64. 65. 64. 63. 63. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 17. 24. 42. 52. 61. 66. 67. 65. 65. 65. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/08/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/08/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY