* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 30 32 36 39 42 46 48 52 57 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 30 32 36 39 42 46 48 52 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 28 30 32 35 39 41 42 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 10 10 7 6 3 9 14 17 29 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 84 72 57 76 114 215 218 249 265 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 139 137 132 132 133 134 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 58 50 49 45 43 46 44 44 44 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 40 28 18 6 -2 -19 -28 -41 -44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 16 7 -10 -18 -21 -40 -32 -34 -6 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1060 1032 1023 1039 1075 1175 1338 1473 1606 1784 2017 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.4 154.7 156.0 157.4 158.7 161.5 164.4 167.1 169.6 172.4 175.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 15 15 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 22. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 22. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY