* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 79 78 77 71 65 59 55 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 79 78 77 71 65 59 55 52 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 74 74 72 67 61 54 49 44 42 40 39 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 18 18 19 10 15 8 7 3 3 2 8 SHEAR DIR 77 91 74 68 70 63 58 107 84 130 333 42 24 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 137 133 131 127 120 113 110 109 110 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 72 66 66 71 70 69 67 66 63 66 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 65 61 56 54 34 28 20 35 40 47 55 200 MB DIV 44 48 53 43 38 22 33 46 32 32 13 0 10 LAND (KM) 1406 1459 1517 1564 1614 1716 1783 1888 2002 2102 2185 2221 2061 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.4 122.3 123.2 124.0 125.6 127.2 129.0 130.6 131.8 132.7 134.0 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 5 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -19. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. 1. -5. -11. -15. -18. -17. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY