* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 32 39 44 45 45 48 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 32 39 44 45 45 48 48 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 16 14 16 14 14 12 9 3 4 9 13 SHEAR DIR 68 69 75 72 57 60 46 54 54 42 234 219 240 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 141 140 138 133 128 122 118 114 113 112 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.3 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 67 64 57 56 52 51 48 46 41 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 44 55 54 54 44 41 36 20 -3 -20 -24 200 MB DIV 38 44 60 90 89 92 56 26 8 10 13 3 -3 LAND (KM) 1938 1881 1825 1771 1716 1588 1437 1266 1094 937 771 615 484 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.5 12.2 13.2 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.4 140.0 140.5 141.0 141.5 142.5 143.7 144.9 146.2 147.4 148.7 149.9 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 17. 23. 24. 25. 28. 27. 28. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 12. 19. 24. 25. 25. 28. 28. 29. 29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY