* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 38 43 48 53 57 60 61 61 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 38 43 48 53 57 60 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 19 21 21 16 9 6 4 9 12 23 29 SHEAR DIR 65 69 63 53 61 51 74 117 96 94 62 45 52 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 144 144 144 144 146 145 144 141 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 69 64 63 57 59 60 65 63 68 68 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -22 -28 -34 -27 -20 -36 -24 -24 -15 -6 -7 -25 200 MB DIV 74 98 83 35 22 56 30 34 50 114 128 156 160 LAND (KM) 929 947 970 973 977 978 1056 1182 1326 1450 1592 1686 1737 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 13.0 13.1 12.6 11.8 11.0 10.0 9.2 8.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.1 108.9 109.6 110.3 111.3 112.4 113.5 114.6 115.6 116.5 116.8 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 39. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 37. 40. 41. 41. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY