* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/08/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 31 39 46 56 69 82 91 95 95 97 98 96 V (KT) LAND 25 31 39 46 56 69 82 91 95 95 97 98 96 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 55 62 67 72 77 81 SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 10 7 8 6 16 12 15 10 10 5 7 SHEAR DIR 131 142 168 180 182 46 59 77 87 81 68 22 26 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 152 153 154 154 154 152 150 149 148 145 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 73 77 78 79 78 76 70 74 74 79 76 78 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 12 10 11 13 16 16 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 46 56 59 38 32 33 28 28 23 32 36 200 MB DIV 116 101 102 112 132 97 85 65 65 60 65 84 89 LAND (KM) 376 398 422 444 475 533 549 550 577 568 554 522 510 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 89.7 90.8 91.9 93.1 94.2 96.3 98.1 99.6 101.0 102.4 103.8 105.2 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 24. 35. 47. 58. 65. 67. 69. 70. 67. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 14. 21. 31. 45. 57. 66. 70. 70. 72. 73. 71. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/08/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 81% is 6.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/08/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY