* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 36 39 43 45 47 48 50 54 57 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 36 39 43 45 47 48 50 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 29 30 33 36 39 41 42 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 7 5 7 3 3 3 12 16 18 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 80 63 85 89 97 136 239 235 257 270 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 138 136 134 129 129 131 133 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 43 42 43 38 35 37 37 38 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 34 20 12 8 -6 -23 -31 -35 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 17 20 14 5 -27 -23 -28 -22 -23 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1016 1005 1009 1016 1037 1113 1235 1363 1510 1715 1958 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.6 155.8 156.9 158.0 159.1 161.4 163.9 166.5 169.2 172.1 175.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 19. 19. 20. 23. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 24. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY