* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 76 75 72 67 62 56 52 49 46 45 43 V (KT) LAND 75 77 76 75 72 67 62 56 52 49 46 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 78 76 73 66 58 52 47 43 40 38 37 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 19 21 17 11 9 6 7 4 5 7 13 SHEAR DIR 82 67 58 60 73 33 69 33 50 353 8 339 18 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 130 127 120 114 110 108 108 109 111 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 69 66 65 67 67 66 63 64 64 59 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 52 60 54 45 43 31 24 18 17 30 38 57 65 200 MB DIV 33 40 43 41 32 23 49 26 26 8 20 -1 -9 LAND (KM) 1438 1490 1544 1587 1634 1718 1810 1913 2036 2137 2232 2174 2079 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 16.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.2 123.0 123.9 124.7 126.4 128.1 129.6 131.1 132.3 133.4 134.4 135.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -26. -29. -30. -32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY