* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 40 44 46 46 46 45 44 44 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 40 44 46 46 46 45 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 19 18 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 12 11 12 8 10 4 3 8 13 20 29 SHEAR DIR 80 79 60 62 64 51 58 59 2 271 252 249 235 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 139 137 131 124 118 112 110 110 112 114 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 60 65 58 54 49 50 44 38 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 61 67 65 67 59 65 43 29 13 12 12 200 MB DIV 53 65 76 66 71 61 41 29 30 19 14 17 12 LAND (KM) 1867 1812 1758 1686 1614 1459 1279 1091 931 785 629 505 404 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.7 13.9 15.1 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.4 140.9 141.5 142.0 143.1 144.3 145.6 146.7 147.8 149.0 150.0 151.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 22. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 27. 25. 24. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY