* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 34 42 49 55 60 66 69 74 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 34 42 49 55 60 66 69 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 37 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 16 18 15 12 11 11 7 9 11 7 12 SHEAR DIR 79 69 54 54 42 80 112 136 118 97 89 54 96 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 143 143 142 144 146 148 147 147 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -52.8 -53.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 60 60 58 60 63 63 68 71 71 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -32 -39 -35 -28 -34 -29 -13 7 19 25 35 18 200 MB DIV 88 74 36 18 27 13 14 37 88 129 152 144 166 LAND (KM) 922 926 937 925 922 954 1036 1136 1215 1318 1414 1530 1595 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.5 13.6 13.3 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.2 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.4 109.1 109.8 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.7 114.9 116.0 116.9 117.6 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 30. 37. 44. 47. 51. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 29. 35. 40. 46. 49. 54. 55. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY