* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/09/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 40 46 57 69 75 76 79 78 79 82 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 40 46 57 69 75 76 79 78 79 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 42 46 49 52 56 60 64 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 10 12 14 19 18 19 15 14 11 12 16 SHEAR DIR 136 131 125 114 73 70 78 93 91 74 39 56 53 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 153 153 153 152 151 151 150 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.7 -52.4 -53.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 79 73 73 70 72 76 81 78 84 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 9 12 13 12 13 11 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 63 68 64 41 35 26 19 14 16 23 23 200 MB DIV 90 85 105 131 141 99 136 74 59 63 63 67 84 LAND (KM) 417 436 462 501 559 575 574 575 544 493 447 401 320 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 14.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.4 93.5 94.5 95.5 97.1 98.3 99.4 100.5 101.4 102.2 103.1 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 30. 42. 49. 51. 53. 52. 52. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 15. 21. 32. 44. 50. 51. 54. 53. 54. 57. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY