* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 45 48 50 52 50 51 50 53 55 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 45 48 50 52 50 51 50 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 47 50 52 53 53 52 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 11 13 19 25 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 29 45 60 61 38 205 245 258 258 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 133 130 129 130 132 134 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 49 45 44 46 39 41 44 44 45 43 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 17 12 10 0 -16 -24 -27 -25 -32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 22 9 -7 -14 -36 -34 -25 -12 -19 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 989 979 985 1013 1057 1177 1295 1414 1581 1774 1990 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.9 157.1 158.2 159.4 160.6 163.1 165.6 168.2 170.7 173.4 176.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 15. 17. 16. 16. 16. 18. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 10. 13. 15. 17. 15. 16. 15. 18. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY