* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 78 72 68 59 52 45 43 41 42 40 40 V (KT) LAND 85 83 78 72 68 59 52 45 43 41 42 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 85 81 77 68 59 52 47 43 41 39 38 SHEAR (KTS) 14 19 18 15 9 8 10 3 1 1 1 8 2 SHEAR DIR 68 55 60 80 67 54 95 98 52 346 133 5 46 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 126 123 116 110 106 104 104 107 111 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 68 67 64 65 64 62 62 59 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 11 11 10 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 64 57 47 44 40 23 22 20 33 34 54 56 60 200 MB DIV 30 33 37 27 26 20 18 5 21 0 -3 0 -20 LAND (KM) 1478 1517 1560 1599 1641 1722 1803 1908 1992 2076 2169 2225 2128 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.4 16.9 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.9 123.7 124.5 125.2 126.8 128.4 129.8 130.9 131.9 132.9 133.9 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -6. -13. -19. -28. -32. -37. -37. -39. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -13. -9. -8. -6. -6. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -7. -13. -17. -26. -33. -40. -42. -44. -43. -45. -45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY