* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 39 41 44 45 42 42 39 39 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 39 41 44 45 42 42 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 SHEAR (KTS) 16 11 9 9 9 10 5 1 8 9 18 21 28 SHEAR DIR 84 73 60 109 83 61 124 298 242 257 238 232 238 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 134 131 125 119 114 111 109 109 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 57 60 59 59 50 47 43 40 38 36 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 9 11 10 9 10 11 9 9 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 59 65 66 69 74 64 34 22 0 2 0 6 200 MB DIV 48 52 49 46 76 52 45 25 16 11 -12 -2 -27 LAND (KM) 1819 1753 1688 1609 1530 1365 1192 1023 876 736 609 504 431 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.7 14.8 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.7 141.2 141.8 142.4 143.5 144.7 145.9 147.0 148.1 149.1 150.0 150.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 5. 5. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 17. 21. 23. 20. 20. 17. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 21. 24. 25. 22. 22. 19. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY