* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/09/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 57 65 70 73 75 74 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 45 57 65 70 73 75 74 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 45 48 51 55 59 62 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 12 10 12 21 17 17 14 9 14 12 16 SHEAR DIR 44 69 76 72 61 66 81 91 75 40 56 70 44 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 153 152 150 149 148 147 145 142 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 81 79 79 75 74 70 72 74 78 78 83 80 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 10 10 10 11 11 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 63 62 56 44 30 20 21 21 4 11 20 31 200 MB DIV 82 92 114 134 108 77 62 47 66 73 89 83 63 LAND (KM) 478 502 542 584 580 616 632 628 605 577 521 477 442 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.6 13.6 14.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.9 94.0 95.0 95.9 96.7 98.2 99.5 100.8 102.1 103.3 104.5 105.6 106.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 17. 28. 37. 43. 47. 49. 48. 52. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 20. 32. 40. 45. 48. 50. 49. 53. 54. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY