* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 100 95 91 77 66 57 52 47 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 100 102 100 95 91 77 66 57 52 47 43 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 100 104 101 96 89 76 64 55 48 44 41 39 38 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 11 6 6 8 9 3 2 2 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 56 65 89 69 46 79 85 79 18 92 195 116 142 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 122 118 113 108 105 104 105 107 112 116 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 63 64 67 66 67 65 66 67 62 63 59 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 14 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 46 41 41 23 15 12 19 30 37 60 62 60 200 MB DIV 45 49 41 41 35 29 15 16 6 2 -3 -13 0 LAND (KM) 1505 1541 1579 1618 1651 1734 1819 1909 1983 2068 2169 2193 2076 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 16.9 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.8 123.6 124.3 125.1 125.8 127.3 128.7 129.9 130.8 131.8 132.9 134.2 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -35. -41. -46. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 12. 12. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 2. -1. -13. -24. -34. -41. -47. -52. -54. -55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 0. -5. -9. -23. -34. -43. -48. -53. -57. -59. -60. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY