* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 33 40 41 44 40 41 38 36 33 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 33 40 41 44 40 41 38 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 15 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 11 8 6 5 4 3 10 13 21 26 28 SHEAR DIR 77 67 82 93 56 88 328 254 262 226 231 232 236 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 132 129 124 118 114 111 110 111 113 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 58 53 50 44 42 41 38 39 34 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 51 62 62 64 70 74 46 26 2 -16 -5 -10 0 200 MB DIV 65 49 56 88 75 48 30 22 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1791 1715 1639 1552 1466 1282 1111 927 758 609 501 419 379 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.9 14.0 14.9 15.9 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 141.0 141.6 142.3 142.9 144.2 145.5 146.9 148.2 149.3 150.1 150.8 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 7. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 9. 15. 17. 21. 19. 19. 16. 14. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 10. 13. 20. 21. 24. 20. 21. 18. 16. 13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY