* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 48 54 62 67 72 74 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 48 54 62 67 72 74 71 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 32 34 37 38 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 13 12 8 8 6 8 9 11 12 12 17 SHEAR DIR 22 34 40 70 97 113 148 123 111 95 44 53 55 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 138 137 140 147 149 150 148 147 144 143 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -52.7 -53.7 -52.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 62 59 61 61 62 63 62 67 69 71 71 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 8 10 10 12 12 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -39 -38 -30 -26 -24 -13 6 12 22 35 13 16 200 MB DIV 38 30 48 51 26 27 37 74 95 144 159 162 148 LAND (KM) 728 726 725 750 784 902 1066 1185 1321 1475 1614 1718 1763 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.8 12.1 11.4 10.9 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.0 111.5 113.2 114.9 116.6 118.1 119.3 120.2 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 35. 43. 47. 50. 52. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 34. 42. 47. 52. 54. 51. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY