* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 41 46 55 62 66 67 68 69 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 41 46 55 62 66 67 68 69 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 40 43 45 46 49 51 54 SHEAR (KTS) 1 5 11 12 18 23 21 21 18 13 14 12 11 SHEAR DIR 267 57 63 62 72 81 100 79 87 85 88 69 59 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 155 152 150 148 147 146 145 141 136 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 73 71 70 74 73 79 76 81 77 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 52 41 37 27 23 22 8 9 11 28 39 200 MB DIV 94 89 109 80 48 75 45 49 47 76 59 85 90 LAND (KM) 437 487 489 501 521 548 595 621 628 619 621 633 635 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 95.2 96.1 97.0 97.8 99.2 100.5 102.0 103.3 104.6 105.6 106.7 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 26. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. 45. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 16. 21. 30. 37. 41. 42. 43. 44. 47. 47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY