* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 41 44 46 47 48 51 53 56 59 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 41 44 46 47 48 51 53 56 59 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 41 43 46 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 6 8 6 3 9 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 8 355 338 23 142 227 227 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 130 130 131 133 134 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.9 -54.4 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 41 41 42 41 42 43 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 17 15 9 1 -12 -17 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 -10 -31 -35 -35 -22 0 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1009 1042 1093 1161 1239 1375 1500 1685 1905 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 11.2 12.0 12.3 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.3 159.6 160.9 162.2 163.5 166.2 169.3 172.0 174.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 15 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 17. 20. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY