* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 99 93 85 70 58 48 41 37 33 32 29 V (KT) LAND 105 104 99 93 85 70 58 48 41 37 33 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 105 105 100 93 86 72 61 52 45 40 37 35 33 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 6 8 8 7 5 5 7 8 4 6 8 SHEAR DIR 53 72 71 49 68 90 99 120 155 164 197 169 183 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.9 24.2 24.7 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 120 117 114 110 104 100 99 103 108 110 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 68 68 68 66 69 66 65 60 61 56 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 39 29 10 3 5 0 20 16 48 47 65 60 200 MB DIV 31 34 40 27 15 6 6 6 -9 -12 0 -11 4 LAND (KM) 1530 1569 1612 1642 1667 1757 1838 1915 2003 2120 2185 2070 1964 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 17.9 17.3 16.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.4 125.1 125.8 126.5 128.0 129.3 130.4 131.5 132.7 134.2 135.4 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -15. -24. -33. -42. -49. -54. -57. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -5. -11. -24. -35. -46. -56. -61. -66. -67. -70. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -6. -12. -20. -35. -47. -57. -64. -68. -72. -73. -76. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY