* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 33 36 40 43 43 41 40 39 40 39 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 33 36 40 43 43 41 40 39 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 15 SHEAR (KTS) 18 22 20 16 20 19 11 8 5 4 7 9 10 SHEAR DIR 40 40 36 40 42 59 62 64 46 201 264 261 252 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 138 136 132 128 125 121 118 116 116 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 71 71 68 65 56 51 47 52 51 47 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 45 46 35 39 30 5 -16 -35 -52 -54 -41 200 MB DIV 60 67 81 75 69 62 13 3 -22 -27 -24 -18 4 LAND (KM) 1780 1701 1623 1545 1467 1303 1148 980 822 683 572 493 433 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.4 14.9 15.1 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 142.5 143.2 143.8 144.4 145.0 146.1 147.3 148.7 150.0 151.2 152.2 153.2 154.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 261 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 16. 20. 23. 23. 21. 20. 19. 20. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY