* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/09/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 30 35 40 50 58 65 67 68 68 72 72 V (KT) LAND 20 24 30 35 40 50 58 65 67 68 68 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 34 37 40 43 45 48 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 5 13 16 17 13 16 14 13 6 5 12 SHEAR DIR 67 75 68 66 74 87 95 73 64 62 45 341 3 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 156 156 156 153 149 144 140 135 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 73 70 71 67 74 73 77 78 79 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 37 35 34 38 23 25 10 17 34 38 39 200 MB DIV 68 106 64 40 42 34 30 46 42 36 57 66 79 LAND (KM) 370 399 366 360 359 383 422 458 488 554 626 706 802 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.4 96.2 97.1 97.9 99.6 101.4 103.1 104.7 106.3 108.0 109.7 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 30. 39. 43. 45. 46. 49. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 15. 20. 30. 38. 45. 47. 48. 48. 52. 52. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/09/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY