* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 42 44 45 47 51 54 57 60 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 42 44 45 47 51 54 57 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 37 40 42 45 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 7 6 1 2 10 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 353 347 8 27 234 224 247 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 129 129 132 133 134 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 41 38 43 41 48 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 13 7 0 -6 -9 -4 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -28 -35 -37 -20 -17 9 -1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1031 1073 1130 1195 1273 1410 1567 1766 1975 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.2 160.5 161.7 163.1 164.4 167.3 170.1 172.9 175.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 21. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY