* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 87 78 70 55 44 38 34 30 29 25 24 V (KT) LAND 100 95 87 78 70 55 44 38 34 30 29 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 89 82 75 63 52 44 38 34 31 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 11 12 10 8 9 6 9 9 7 11 13 SHEAR DIR 70 62 61 56 84 86 119 135 156 193 186 177 169 SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.4 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 115 113 110 105 102 101 102 105 107 110 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 65 68 65 68 70 68 65 64 60 59 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 18 7 -3 -7 -18 -8 -4 23 35 44 33 200 MB DIV 38 49 36 16 6 6 5 0 -7 -16 -13 -9 0 LAND (KM) 1568 1609 1631 1666 1703 1790 1889 1988 2065 2165 2183 2036 1866 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.4 16.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.3 126.0 126.7 127.4 128.7 130.0 131.1 132.0 133.0 134.2 135.7 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 7 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -15. -25. -34. -41. -47. -52. -54. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -20. -31. -42. -50. -56. -62. -65. -68. -69. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -6. -9. -10. -13. -13. -11. -8. -7. -5. -6. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -13. -9. -8. -6. -7. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -13. -22. -30. -45. -56. -62. -66. -70. -71. -74. -76. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY