* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 08/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 31 34 37 39 39 39 39 40 43 44 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 31 34 37 39 39 39 39 40 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 SHEAR (KTS) 22 23 17 18 21 15 11 1 2 7 7 6 4 SHEAR DIR 50 59 68 72 83 93 93 104 184 235 267 260 221 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 136 134 129 124 121 118 115 116 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 69 65 60 54 49 44 47 47 46 40 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 41 41 55 48 35 6 -18 -20 -37 -30 -28 200 MB DIV 71 79 79 53 71 38 19 8 -17 -24 -19 -31 -9 LAND (KM) 1678 1604 1529 1447 1365 1209 1038 899 754 635 562 497 450 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.7 11.2 12.1 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 143.2 143.8 144.3 144.9 145.4 146.5 147.7 148.8 150.0 151.1 152.1 153.3 154.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 5 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 20. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. 23. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 08/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 08/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY