* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 36 45 53 60 63 66 66 68 67 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 36 45 53 60 63 66 66 68 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 34 36 36 36 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 4 3 4 5 7 5 11 11 13 15 18 SHEAR DIR 30 59 92 177 199 205 165 122 144 151 137 134 125 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 135 136 137 142 143 141 137 133 127 121 115 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 63 62 61 60 58 58 57 54 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 12 12 13 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -21 -15 -19 -12 -1 17 26 33 53 65 112 119 200 MB DIV 38 46 31 28 26 27 39 70 58 69 46 72 59 LAND (KM) 700 717 745 789 839 911 958 1051 1166 1258 1405 1573 1719 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.1 109.9 110.7 111.4 113.0 114.7 116.5 118.4 120.3 122.5 124.8 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 41. 44. 44. 45. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 40. 43. 46. 46. 48. 47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY