* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 53 60 66 70 71 73 74 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 53 60 66 70 71 73 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 44 48 52 53 53 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 10 12 13 7 10 10 10 10 15 10 5 SHEAR DIR 65 30 64 70 84 86 58 70 71 64 80 84 60 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 157 157 156 152 148 144 138 131 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 11 9 13 12 13 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 77 74 69 68 72 67 72 69 75 70 74 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 26 26 34 29 13 14 17 7 18 23 12 200 MB DIV 63 41 33 20 24 19 35 7 17 20 16 26 53 LAND (KM) 309 272 257 243 231 252 276 309 363 447 544 662 681 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.3 97.1 97.9 98.6 100.3 102.0 103.5 105.1 106.8 108.7 110.5 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 9 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 39. 45. 49. 49. 51. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 34. 40. 46. 50. 51. 53. 54. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY