* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/10/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 68 61 56 48 42 37 35 34 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 85 76 68 61 56 48 42 37 35 34 33 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 85 76 69 64 58 50 43 38 34 32 31 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 9 7 5 6 7 5 3 4 12 10 17 SHEAR DIR 38 60 66 95 122 98 133 192 181 185 170 175 153 SST (C) 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.8 24.8 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 111 109 106 102 100 102 105 109 109 113 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 68 64 66 65 62 62 57 57 52 56 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 21 16 12 17 5 19 14 38 48 62 59 56 200 MB DIV 48 42 15 9 18 22 -1 -21 -22 -11 -14 8 6 LAND (KM) 1599 1623 1650 1691 1734 1817 1917 2022 2126 2232 2158 2045 1921 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.1 17.8 17.4 17.1 17.1 16.5 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.0 126.7 127.4 128.1 129.3 130.5 131.5 132.4 133.4 134.5 135.7 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -20. -27. -33. -38. -41. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -20. -24. -31. -36. -42. -45. -47. -49. -49. -49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -17. -24. -29. -37. -43. -48. -50. -51. -52. -52. -52. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY