* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 55 62 71 77 81 84 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 55 62 71 77 81 84 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 63 73 82 92 98 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 10 5 4 5 8 10 3 7 3 7 9 SHEAR DIR 94 82 72 104 80 100 80 135 47 173 281 234 307 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 134 135 134 136 138 138 138 141 146 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 132 132 131 133 137 136 137 139 144 147 146 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 64 61 58 59 57 52 53 50 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 88 73 68 60 52 41 34 30 28 22 12 9 10 200 MB DIV 21 7 6 -3 -3 21 38 42 19 39 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1154 1099 1053 1026 1000 961 925 932 811 681 589 263 18 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.9 14.9 15.9 16.7 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.0 44.9 45.8 46.6 48.0 49.9 52.2 54.8 57.5 60.4 63.4 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 9 8 9 11 12 14 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 33 33 36 43 48 51 54 45 67 69 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 390 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 30. 38. 47. 53. 57. 60. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 30. 37. 46. 52. 56. 59. 59. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY